Midterm Update (3 weeks out)

i've depressingly resigned myself to the inevitability of the Dems losing the House this year. what i think is going to happen is that they lose the House but keep the Senate. so basically, that will lead to complete and utter gridlock in the next two years, so we have that to look forward to. there are a lot of people saying a Republican House will be the best thing in the world for Obama's re-election chances, some say even sealing it, because he can run so easily against a do-nothing opposition dead set against his every move (including Arnold Schwarzenegger). but me, i'm upset because it's actually more important to me that the administration ACCOMPLISHES things in its first term. which is not to say they haven't. like i said before, this has NOT been a do-nothing Congress under Pelosi, they've passed HCR and WSR, both of which account for the most progressive legislation passed by any president since at least LBJ. and the good thing is that the benefits of that legislation will very likely be felt by 2012, whereas of now they haven't quite kicked in yet. so there's that to be optimistic about, but i had two more things that i REALLY wanted done by the end of his first term. One is the repeal of DADT and the other is comprehensive immigration reform (i've lost all hope on climate change). now, the dadt repeal could actually still happen, because the pentagon review is due by december 1st, and there IS a chance that the defense spending bill could get passed in the lame-duck session (what do those people have to lose by that point?). but i think if the republicans take over, immigration reform is basically dead. which sucks.

my only hope is this: in the lame-duck session, the dems will take the bull by the horns and pass as much as they can while they can. that will include ending the Bush tax cuts while extending those for the middle class, and passing the defense spending bill, which includes the repeal of DADT and the Dream Act, which is at least a piece of immigration reform, sort of a down payment on it. that would be pretty good at least. and if the republicans just absolutely refuse to pass it (even though it's a WAR-SPENDING bill, god how hypocritical can they be), then i think obama will go ahead and issue the stop-loss moratorium on firings. in fact i'd be shocked if he doesn't, after the review comes in saying that repealing the ban will have no impact on morale, etc., which i fully expect it to. and after all this, i suppose i'll just have to become more interested and focused on his foreign policy (i'm more of a domestic policy person, although i do want the war in Afghanistan to come to an end).

it's always the right idea to hope for the best and prepare for the worst... so here's hoping. if these last little things can get done in the lame-duck session, then his first term will still be amazingly productive in the long run. and if people are right and it helps him to get re-elected, it will also likely erase the GOP gains of 2010 and give back even bigger majorities than before.